Escalation-Aware Governance Framework for Autonomous Warfare Decision Support Systems
Main Article Content
Abstract
Artificial intelligence increasingly transforms military decision-making through autonomous targeting, predictive battlefield analytics, cyber operations, and algorithm-assisted command systems. Although these technologies improve operational speed, they create governance risks when machine-speed decisions exceed human oversight, legal accountability, and escalation control. This study analyzes governance asymmetry in AI-driven autonomous warfare decision support systems and develops an escalation-aware governance framework. A structured qualitative review using transparent search procedures and thematic synthesis was conducted across 33 peer-reviewed and institutional sources on military AI, autonomous weapons, cybersecurity, and AI governance. The synthesis reveals three interconnected governance failures governance asymmetry, symbolic human control, and escalation compression that reinforce one another by weakening accountability, reducing substantive human judgment, and increasing strategic instability. The study proposes a human-centered escalation-aware governance framework integrating eight operational control layers: human authorization checkpoints, explainability, auditability, cybersecurity resilience, cognitive security, escalation-control mechanisms, emergency override, and post-action review. The framework contributes to intelligent decision support literature by translating autonomous warfare risks into embedded governance layers for preserving accountability and strategic stability
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
Article Details
How to Cite
Liberty, N. L. M. ., Rimbawa, H. ., & Suhardjo, B. . (2026). Escalation-Aware Governance Framework for Autonomous Warfare Decision Support Systems. Journal of Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS), 9(2), 138-147. https://doi.org/10.35335/idss.v9i2.358
References
Amoroso, D., & Tamburrini, G. (2023). Meaningful human control in AI-driven warfare: A legal and ethical framework. Philosophy & Technology, 36(2), Article 25. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-023-00678-9
Blanchard, A., Thomas, C., & Taddeo, M. (2024). Ethical governance of artificial intelligence for defence: Normative tradeoffs for principle to practice guidance. AI & Society, 40, 185–198. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00146-024-01866-7
Blauth, T. F., Gstrein, O. J., & Zwitter, A. (2022). Artificial intelligence crime: An overview of malicious use and abuse of AI. IEEE Access, 10, 77110–77122. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2022.3191790
Bode, I., Huelss, H., Nadibaidze, A., Qiao-Franco, G., & Watts, T. F. A. (2023). Prospects for the global governance of autonomous weapons: Comparing Chinese, Russian, and US practices. Ethics and Information Technology, 25(1), Article 5. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-023-09678-x
Boshuijzen-van Burken, C. (2023). Value sensitive design for autonomous weapon systems: A primer. Ethics and Information Technology, 25, Article 11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-023-09687-w
Boutin, B. (2023). State responsibility in relation to military applications of artificial intelligence. Leiden Journal of International Law, 36(1), 133–150. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0922156522000607
Boyd, J. R. (1996). The essence of winning and losing.
Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2021). One size fits all? What counts as quality practice in (reflexive) thematic analysis? Qualitative Research in Psychology, 18(3), 328–352. https://doi.org/10.1080/14780887.2020.1769238
Christie, E. H., Ertan, A., Adomaitis, L., & Klaus, M. (2023). Regulating lethal autonomous weapon systems: Exploring the challenges of explainability and traceability. AI and Ethics, 4, 229–245. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43681-023-00261-0
Conn, A., & Bode, I. (2025). Establishing human responsibility and accountability at early stages of the lifecycle for AI-based defence systems. Ethics and Information Technology, 27, Article 51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-025-09862-1
Cross, I. C. of the R. (2021). ICRC position on autonomous weapon systems. https://www.icrc.org/en/document/autonomous-weapons-icrc-recommends-new-rules
Defense, U. S. D. of. (2023). DoD Directive 3000.09: Autonomy in weapon systems. https://www.esd.whs.mil/portals/54/documents/dd/issuances/dodd/300009p.pdf
Dorton, S. L., & Harper, S. B. (2022). A naturalistic investigation of trust, AI, and intelligence work. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, 16(4), 222–236. https://doi.org/10.1177/15553434221103718
Erskine, T., & Miller, S. E. (2024). AI and the decision to go to war: Future risks and opportunities. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 78(2), 135–147. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2024.2349598
Ferl, A.-K. (2024). Imagining meaningful human control: Autonomous weapons and the (de-)legitimisation of future warfare. Global Society, 38(1), 139–155. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600826.2023.2233004
Floridi, L. (2023). The ethics of artificial intelligence: Principles, challenges, and opportunities. Oxford University Press.
Horowitz, M. C., & Kahn, L. (2024). Bending the automation bias curve: A study of human and AI-based decision making in national security contexts. International Studies Quarterly, 68(2), Article sqae020. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae020
Jenkins, R., Sullins, J. P., Kalu, O., Kamath, A., & Phumjam, K. (2025). Recent insights in responsible AI development and deployment in national defense: A review of literature, 2022–2024. Journal of Military Ethics, 24(1), 63–85. https://doi.org/10.1080/15027570.2025.2483058
Johnson, J. (2021). Artificial intelligence and future warfare: Implications for international security. Defense & Security Analysis, 37(2), 147–169. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2021.1915038
Johnson, J. (2022). Inadvertent escalation in the age of intelligence machines: A new model for nuclear risk in the digital age. European Journal of International Security, 7(3), 337–359. https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2021.23
Johnson, J. (2023a). Automating the OODA loop in the age of intelligent machines: Reaffirming the role of humans in command-and-control decision-making in the digital age. Defence Studies, 23(1), 43–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702436.2022.2102486
Johnson, J. (2023b). Automating the OODA loop in the age of intelligent machines: Reaffirming the role of humans in command-and-control decision-making in the digital age. Defence Studies, 23(1), 43–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702436.2022.2102486
Macrae, C. (2022). Learning from the failure of autonomous and intelligent systems: Accidents, safety and sociotechnical sources of risk. Risk Analysis, 42(9), 1999–2025. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13850
Nadibaidze, A., & Miotto, N. (2023). The impact of AI on strategic stability is what states make of it: Comparing US and Russian discourses. Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, 6(1), 47–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2023.2205552
Organization, N. A. T. (2024). NATO releases revised artificial intelligence strategy. https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/articles/news/2024/07/10/nato-releases-revised-ai-strategy
Page, M. J., McKenzie, J. E., Bossuyt, P. M., Boutron, I., Hoffmann, T. C., Mulrow, C. D., Shamseer, L., Tetzlaff, J. M., Akl, E. A., Brennan, S. E., & others. (2021). The PRISMA 2020 statement: An updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ, 372, Article n71. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71
Payne, K. (2021). I, warbot: The dawn of artificially intelligent conflict. Oxford University Press.
Rosert, E., & Sauer, F. (2021). How (not) to stop the killer robots: A comparative analysis of humanitarian disarmament campaign strategies. Contemporary Security Policy, 42(1), 4–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2020.1771508
Snyder, H. (2023). Systematic literature review as a research method: An updated guide. Journal of Business Research, 156, 113–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.113125
State, U. S. D. of. (2023). Political declaration on responsible military use of artificial intelligence and autonomy. https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-arms-control-deterrence-and-stability/political-declaration-on-responsible-military-use-of-artificial-intelligence-and-autonomy
Timonen, S., & Conlon, C. (2023). Grounded theory in the age of AI: New directions. Qualitative Research, 23(4), 567–584. https://doi.org/10.1177/14687941231168418
Blanchard, A., Thomas, C., & Taddeo, M. (2024). Ethical governance of artificial intelligence for defence: Normative tradeoffs for principle to practice guidance. AI & Society, 40, 185–198. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00146-024-01866-7
Blauth, T. F., Gstrein, O. J., & Zwitter, A. (2022). Artificial intelligence crime: An overview of malicious use and abuse of AI. IEEE Access, 10, 77110–77122. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2022.3191790
Bode, I., Huelss, H., Nadibaidze, A., Qiao-Franco, G., & Watts, T. F. A. (2023). Prospects for the global governance of autonomous weapons: Comparing Chinese, Russian, and US practices. Ethics and Information Technology, 25(1), Article 5. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-023-09678-x
Boshuijzen-van Burken, C. (2023). Value sensitive design for autonomous weapon systems: A primer. Ethics and Information Technology, 25, Article 11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-023-09687-w
Boutin, B. (2023). State responsibility in relation to military applications of artificial intelligence. Leiden Journal of International Law, 36(1), 133–150. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0922156522000607
Boyd, J. R. (1996). The essence of winning and losing.
Braun, V., & Clarke, V. (2021). One size fits all? What counts as quality practice in (reflexive) thematic analysis? Qualitative Research in Psychology, 18(3), 328–352. https://doi.org/10.1080/14780887.2020.1769238
Christie, E. H., Ertan, A., Adomaitis, L., & Klaus, M. (2023). Regulating lethal autonomous weapon systems: Exploring the challenges of explainability and traceability. AI and Ethics, 4, 229–245. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43681-023-00261-0
Conn, A., & Bode, I. (2025). Establishing human responsibility and accountability at early stages of the lifecycle for AI-based defence systems. Ethics and Information Technology, 27, Article 51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-025-09862-1
Cross, I. C. of the R. (2021). ICRC position on autonomous weapon systems. https://www.icrc.org/en/document/autonomous-weapons-icrc-recommends-new-rules
Defense, U. S. D. of. (2023). DoD Directive 3000.09: Autonomy in weapon systems. https://www.esd.whs.mil/portals/54/documents/dd/issuances/dodd/300009p.pdf
Dorton, S. L., & Harper, S. B. (2022). A naturalistic investigation of trust, AI, and intelligence work. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making, 16(4), 222–236. https://doi.org/10.1177/15553434221103718
Erskine, T., & Miller, S. E. (2024). AI and the decision to go to war: Future risks and opportunities. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 78(2), 135–147. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2024.2349598
Ferl, A.-K. (2024). Imagining meaningful human control: Autonomous weapons and the (de-)legitimisation of future warfare. Global Society, 38(1), 139–155. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600826.2023.2233004
Floridi, L. (2023). The ethics of artificial intelligence: Principles, challenges, and opportunities. Oxford University Press.
Horowitz, M. C., & Kahn, L. (2024). Bending the automation bias curve: A study of human and AI-based decision making in national security contexts. International Studies Quarterly, 68(2), Article sqae020. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqae020
Jenkins, R., Sullins, J. P., Kalu, O., Kamath, A., & Phumjam, K. (2025). Recent insights in responsible AI development and deployment in national defense: A review of literature, 2022–2024. Journal of Military Ethics, 24(1), 63–85. https://doi.org/10.1080/15027570.2025.2483058
Johnson, J. (2021). Artificial intelligence and future warfare: Implications for international security. Defense & Security Analysis, 37(2), 147–169. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2021.1915038
Johnson, J. (2022). Inadvertent escalation in the age of intelligence machines: A new model for nuclear risk in the digital age. European Journal of International Security, 7(3), 337–359. https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2021.23
Johnson, J. (2023a). Automating the OODA loop in the age of intelligent machines: Reaffirming the role of humans in command-and-control decision-making in the digital age. Defence Studies, 23(1), 43–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702436.2022.2102486
Johnson, J. (2023b). Automating the OODA loop in the age of intelligent machines: Reaffirming the role of humans in command-and-control decision-making in the digital age. Defence Studies, 23(1), 43–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702436.2022.2102486
Macrae, C. (2022). Learning from the failure of autonomous and intelligent systems: Accidents, safety and sociotechnical sources of risk. Risk Analysis, 42(9), 1999–2025. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13850
Nadibaidze, A., & Miotto, N. (2023). The impact of AI on strategic stability is what states make of it: Comparing US and Russian discourses. Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, 6(1), 47–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2023.2205552
Organization, N. A. T. (2024). NATO releases revised artificial intelligence strategy. https://www.nato.int/en/news-and-events/articles/news/2024/07/10/nato-releases-revised-ai-strategy
Page, M. J., McKenzie, J. E., Bossuyt, P. M., Boutron, I., Hoffmann, T. C., Mulrow, C. D., Shamseer, L., Tetzlaff, J. M., Akl, E. A., Brennan, S. E., & others. (2021). The PRISMA 2020 statement: An updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews. BMJ, 372, Article n71. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n71
Payne, K. (2021). I, warbot: The dawn of artificially intelligent conflict. Oxford University Press.
Rosert, E., & Sauer, F. (2021). How (not) to stop the killer robots: A comparative analysis of humanitarian disarmament campaign strategies. Contemporary Security Policy, 42(1), 4–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2020.1771508
Snyder, H. (2023). Systematic literature review as a research method: An updated guide. Journal of Business Research, 156, 113–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.113125
State, U. S. D. of. (2023). Political declaration on responsible military use of artificial intelligence and autonomy. https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-arms-control-deterrence-and-stability/political-declaration-on-responsible-military-use-of-artificial-intelligence-and-autonomy
Timonen, S., & Conlon, C. (2023). Grounded theory in the age of AI: New directions. Qualitative Research, 23(4), 567–584. https://doi.org/10.1177/14687941231168418
Copyright and Licensing
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.